Abstract: FUTURE-DRAINAGE will use outputs from the new UKCP18 perturbed physics convection-permitting model (CPM) ensemble (at 2.2km resolution across the UK) to produce revised rainfall 'uplifts', the first assessment of uncertainty in rainfall 'uplifts' and new guidance for UK urban drainage design and urban flood risk assessment for use in climate adaptation. This will include the development of a new regional pooling approach for spatially-correlated CPM outputs, and modelling to compare the national RoFSW methodology to outputs from fully-hydrodynamic urban flood models, for the same cities and uplifts, to quantify the uncertainty in and determine the level of detail in modelling needed for future urban flood predictions.
Consultation with water and sewerage companies (WaSCs), the Environment Agency (EA) and Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) is embedded within the FUTURE-DRAINAGE project. Aspects of the research concerning return periods of the results, regionalisation of the uplifts, uplift confidence and how to use the uncertainty estimates in practical ways in sewerage planning are being considered through the project with stakeholder input.
This presentation will explain the aims and objectives of the project and show some of the results so far on the new statistical method developed to produce return period estimates from CPM outputs across the UK, and some preliminary assessment of the uplifts.
Prof Hayley Fowler
Hayley is Professor of Climate Change Impacts in the School of Engineering at Newcastle University. Her research focuses on improved physical understanding of changing precipitation extremes and providing better projections for climate adaptation.
Murray is a Technical Director and Chartered Meteorologist with JBA. He has led a wide range of national and international projects in climate resilience, making use of Met Office model output and UKCP09, UKCIP02 and UKCIP98 scenario outputs.